Brownlow Medal 2017 Preview: Dusty To Clean Up At Brownlow Medal


Brownlow Medal | Monday, September 25, 7.30pm (AEST), Crown Palladium, Melbourne

Richmond talisman Dustin Martin is set for a record-breaking night at this year’s Brownlow Medal.

If the experts’ predictions come to fruition, ‘Dusty’ is set to clean-up at the AFL’s night of nights with a projected record-breaking votes tally.

Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield (pictured below) set a new record at last year’s count, polling a whopping 35 votes but Dusty is poised to exceed that after an exceptional season where he guided the yellow and black to this year's Grand Final.

Dusty played every game of the regular season, averaging 30.3 disposals (3rd in AFL), 6.6 clearances (3rd in AFL), 3.6 centre clearances (1st in AFL) and 6.2 inside 50s (1st in AFL).  

The 25-year-old Tigers midfielder was also handy in front of the goal, adding 32 goals, to finish the regular season as Richmond’s second highest goal scorer behind Jack Riewoldt (51).

Some experts are predicting Dusty to poll the maximum 3 votes in up to 13 matches with a potential record haul of 46 votes.

AFL.com.au’s Brownlow Medal predictor has Martin collecting 38 votes, which would still be a record haul.

Dusty’s only threat to the medal was eliminated in round 19 when last year’s winner Dangerfield copped a one-match suspension from the Match Review Panel for a dangerous tackle on Carlton’s Matthew Kreuzer.

If Martin is a certainty to take home the game’s highest individual honour, who will make up the minor placings with Dangerfield ineligible? 

A plethora of midfielders are in contention to finish second and third behind Martin but Hawthorn ball magnet Tom Mitchell (pictured above) is a pronounced second favourite behind Dusty.

The former Swans star led the AFL in disposals per game with 35.6 and without him, the Hawks wouldn’t have won the 10 games they won during the 22-game regular season.

Other top three contenders include GWS’ Josh Kelly, Adelaide pair Matt Crouch and Rory Sloane (pictured above), Bulldogs premiership star Marcus Bontempelli and Sydney Swans captain Josh Kennedy who was vital in leading the Swans into the finals after starting the season in a 0-6 hole. 

Melbourne midfielder Clayton Oliver, former Brownlow Medallist Gary Ablett Jr and Geelong captain Joel Selwood are longshots to finish in the top three but they're all good chances of finishing in the top 10. 

The Verdict 

Even if Dangerfield was eligible, Dusty would still be a clear favourite to take home home his maiden Brownlow medal.

It's an accolade he richly deserves and not surprisingly, the Tigers playmaker has already won several awards including the AFL Players’ Association Most Valuable Player and the best player award at the AFL Coaches Association’s awards.

Only a momumental upset will deny him this year's Brownlow Medal.

Winner:

Unibet Odds: Dustin Martin 1.08, Tom Mitchell 10.00, Josh Kelly 15.00, Matt Crouch 29.00, Rory Sloane 29.00, Marcus Bontempelli 34.00, Josh Kennedy 51.00, Clayton Oliver 61.00, Gary Ablett 67.00, Joel Selwood 67.00, Lance Franklin 81.00, Dayne Beams 101.00, Trent Cotchin 101.00, Nat Fyfe 101.00, Robbie Gray 101.00, Dan Hannebery 101.00, Dylan Shiel 101.00, Elliot Yeo 101.00, Bryce Gibbs 126.00, Adam Treloar 126.00

Tip: Dustin Martin 

1-3:

Tip: Tom Mitchell 1.25, Rory Sloane 3.50, Josh Kennedy 6.00

Read More From Torin Chen