Racing Saturday October 14 The Everest Preview: Vega Magic To Reach Peak In The Everest


Feature Race

The Everest, (Race 8), 1200m

Racecourse 

Randwick, Sydney 

Map

Map Comments

Redzel holds all the map favours.

He can position as required dependent on the early tempo.

If Houtzen looks for a sit, he can lead.

If Vega Magic (pictured above left) pushes on, he can ensure he works and then drop into the 1x1.

Vega Magic is the interesting Map horse. He’ll likely get in but it’s by no means guaranteed.

Hence why I have drawn him three-wide.

The other horses I’ve drawn in the three-wide line are more likely get in.

I draw as such as this gives the best idea of the risk that they do not.

Often this depends on the intent of the inside barriers to hold their positions.

For instance, Brave Smash/English will likely come across either in front or behind She Will Reign depending on their intent to use the advantage of the barrier to be closer.

Runner Comments

Chautauqua (5.50) (pictured above) 

Closed off both runs this campaign in strong sectionals but is going to be a long way back again

Chautauqua's best is the best in the race but it was several preparations ago now.

His TJ win in April at the track and distance was visually incredible but even if he replicates that, I’m not sure he gets pass everyone in this field.

Vega Magic (5.50) (pictured above) 

In my opinion, his race to lose.

As noted above, jockey Craig Williams is going to have some quick decisions to make after jumping. 

The horse himself has the best recent ratings since moving to the Hayes/Dabernig team, is adaptable enough to be able to lead or take a sit and has the proven stamina to see out a strong 1200m.

If not for some doubts on the map, I’d be very confident.

Redzel (8.00) (pictured above)

All the Map favours.

He has won twice at 1200m including the Group 1 Doomben 10,000.

I’m still concerned with him running out a high pressure 1200m but he’s in career best form with his 3rd and 2nd best career efforts coming the prep.

He could step again and a strong chance.

Redkirk Warrior (8.50) (pictured above) 

Trainer David Hayes has said all along that Redkirk was his best and that must be respected. 

Certainly, his two Flemington straight track wins when leading throughout have rated very highly.

He has been less flattering around the bend in Australia.

Another with the proven stamina to cope with a high-pressure race and does get a nice rail run.

Clearly Innocent (13.00)

Looked to have more to give first up in the Premiere Stakes.

He has a record of improving 2nd up however each of those 2nd up efforts has come off a much lower base than his last run.

If he takes the normal 2L plus improvement, look out.

But the question is did he give too much first up? 

The market has factored in his 2nd up improvement and so appears to be under-priced now.

Deploy (11.00)

Broken successive track records, including at this course and distance.

However, that was heavily wind assisted.

Needs to find another new peak and what is needed looks beyond him here.

Likely to start much longer on the day.

Fell Swoop (61.00) (pictured above) 

I like the horse in the right race. Trainer is a gun but out of his class here.

Brave Smash (31.00)

On his first Australian effort he ran the quickest last 400 and 200 behind Vega Magic.

Beaten last start at 1.65. Not impossible but not for me.

English (10.00)

Gai Waterhouse will have her primed and ready to go.

Her last effort was a fantastic prep run for this and she can win it.

Her best is up there but has all too often found one to beat her.

Map doesn’t look perfect. Another I think is currently under the odds and likely to get to a better quote.

At around 17.00, I would consider but not yet.

She Will Reign (4.80) (pictured above) 

Fantastic performance against the bias in the Moir at the Valley last start.

She is primed and will take improvement.

The question is can she take the leap of 2-3L that she needs.

Again, it’s possible but I would want closer to double figure odds to find out.

Houtzen (26.00) (pictured above) 

Speed demon who has been fair this prep. Don’t think he can reach the mark needed to win.

Tulip (61.00)

Fills the Coolmore slot as one of their horses. None.

Emergencies

If any of the final field are scratched the connections will choose one of the four emergencies.

In Her Time, Trapeze Artist, Takedown or Ball Of Muscle.

If In Her Time or Trapeze Artist get a run they are live chances.

I will update if/when this happens although you would assume the possibility at this stage is quite remote.

Weather

There is a chance of rain, fortunately all the field, except for Redkirk Warrior, handle soft conditions.

Verdict

Winston Churchill coined the phrase “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” to describe Russia at the outbreak of WWII.

(Lisa Simpson used a similar phrase to describe Nelson Muntz).

Delving into the form one could be forgiven that it’s a riddle wrapped within a mystery.

Not a race I can invest heavily on but I’m comfortable having a small bet on Vega Magic.

My top four for to win the Unibet Mustang:

1. Vega Magic

2. Redzel

3. English

4. Redkirk Warrior

Caulfield Guineas, (Group 1), Race 8, 1600m

Expecting a very strong pace although surely stablemates The Mission and Perast won’t go at each other as they did in the Golden Rose.

Favourites Royal Symphony and Catchy (pictured above) both come into this off last start defeats when starting 2.40 and 1.95 respectively.

The lead up races were same day, track and distance and a comparison of overall times show Catchy ran around 2.5L quicker although Royal Symphony’s last 400 and 200 were quicker.

Catchy receives the fillies allowance here and whether you think that is a small or large factor it certainly is a positive.

I’m happy to go with the Catchy.

From left field, I can save on Sanctioned.

Missed the kick in the Spring Champion last week in Sydney but ran home strongly.

Assuming a strongly run race here he should be able to cross to a reasonable position midfield and looks likely to be more suited back the mile.

If outlaying 10 units have 8 on Catchy and 2 on Sanctioned.

Herbert Power, (Race 4), 2400m

A couple of horses fresh off the plane line up against a moderate group of locals and if they bring their best, I think they’ll be fighting the race out.

They’re both likely to sit on pace and with three Lloyd Williams horses in the race, it’s likely this'll be a good staying contest.

Of the pair it’s Wall Of Fire (pictured above) that I lean to on form, however Kidmenever has the advantage of being from the Charlie Appleby yard who came and conquered plenty of races last Spring.

Very little between them.

Happy to level stake them and have Wall Of Fire the slightly better way.

 

Happy Punting! 

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